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Oscars – Predictions

BEST PICTURE

ARRIVAL

FENCES

HACKSAW RIDGE

HELL OR HIGH WATER

HIDDEN FIGURES

LA LA LAND

LION

MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

MOONLIGHT

Will win: La La Land

Should win: Moonlight. Final answer.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

CASEY AFFLECK – Manchester by the Sea

ANDREW GARFIELD – Hacksaw Ridge

RYAN GOSLING – La La Land

VIGGO MORTENSEN – Captain Fantastic

DENZEL WASHINGTON – Fences

Will win: Denzel Washington

Should win: Casey Affleck

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

MAHERSHALA ALI – Moonlight

JEFF BRIDGES – Hell or High Water

LUCAS HEDGES – Manchester by the Sea

DEV PATEL – Lion

MICHAEL SHANNON – Nocturnal Animals

Will win: Mahershala Ali

Should win: Mahershala Ali

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

ISABELLE HUPPERT – Elle

RUTH NEGGA – Loving

NATALIE PORTMAN – Jackie

EMMA STONE – La La Land

MERYL STREEP – Florence Foster Jenkins

Will win: Emma Stone

Should win: I keep debating whether or not all of these performances – besides Emma Stone – are even worthy of “leading role” nominations. Yes, they were all leading roles in their films, but spearheads to this year’s group of films, eh?

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

VIOLA DAVIS – Fences

NAOMIE HARRIS – Moonlight

NICOLE KIDMAN – Lion

OCTAVIA SPENCER – Hidden Figures

MICHELLE WILLIAMS – Manchester by the Sea

Will win: Viola Davis

Should win: Viola Davis should have been in the leading role category. I don’t know why she’s in this category and it would actually make things interesting if she was facing off against Stone. All five – besides Nicole Kidman – gave wonderful performances in their own way.

DIRECTING

ARRIVAL – Denis Villeneuve

HACKSAW RIDGE – Mel Gibson

LA LA LAND – Damien Chazelle

MANCHESTER BY THE SEA – Kenneth Lonergan

MOONLIGHT – Barry Jenkins

This is still the most devastating category to choose. You literally cannot hate Chazelle or Jenkins, it’s not possible. Their awards season campaigns have been brilliant and it’s been a pleasure to watch these two visionaries do their work. I will be happy with either.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

JACKIE – Mica Levi

LA LA LAND – Justin Hurwitz

LION – Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka

MOONLIGHT – Nicholas Britell

PASSENGERS – Thomas Newman

Will win: La La Land

Should win: La La Land

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

AUDITION (THE FOOLS WHO DREAM)

CAN’T STOP THE FEELING

CITY OF STARS

THE EMPTY CHAIR

HOW FAR I’LL GO

Will win: City of Stars

Should win: I liked “Audition” much more.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

ARRIVAL – Screenplay by Eric Heisserer

FENCES – Screenplay by August Wilson

HIDDEN FIGURES – Screenplay by Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi

LION – Screenplay by Luke Davies

MOONLIGHT – Screenplay by Barry Jenkins; Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney

Will win: Moonlight

Should win: Moonlight

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

HELL OR HIGH WATER – Taylor Sheridan

LA LA LAND – Damien Chazelle

THE LOBSTER – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou

MANCHESTER BY THE SEA – Kenneth Lonergan

20TH CENTURY WOMEN – Mike Mills

Will win: Manchester by the Sea

Should win: Manchester by the Sea

 



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